“We Have Three Months to Survive the Year,” Canmore Restaurant Owner Says

Restaurant closures are rising across Canada, but Bow Valley operators say the pressure is showing up locally in a more nuanced way: higher food and supply costs, persistent staffing challenges, and shoulder seasons that are getting harder to carry, even while peak tourism months remain busy.

Dalhousie University’s Agri-Food Analytics Lab suggests Canada could see about 4,000 restaurant closures in 2026, after about 7,000 closures in 2025. The lab’s estimate describes operators facing rising costs and shifts in consumer spending.

Restaurants Canada also says many operators are struggling to make money. In a Jan. 12 note, the group said 41% of foodservice businesses are operating at a loss or just breaking even.

Restaurant owners and chefs in Banff and Canmore rising input costs, thinner margins, staffing strains, and diners spending less per visit, even as several said strong tourism demand continues to keep dining rooms active in peak months.

“The past year has been a hard one for us. Still profitable and well received, but not without its struggles,” said Dorothy Woolstencroft of Whitebark Cafe. “Staffing and food costs are the biggest issues.”

Woolstencroft said the cafe relies heavily on coffee and chocolate, and those costs have increased more than many other inputs. She also said Banff’s tourism economy can make local conditions differ from national patterns.

“Banff has its own problems that don’t always coincide with national trends,” Woolstencroft said. “Restaurants, bars and cafes continue to be busy because of the success of Banff.”

In Canmore, Stuart Schnell of The Fat Ox said the business sees a clear drop in traffic during the slow months between fall and early winter.

“The shoulder season from Canadian Thanksgiving to early December is much quieter,” Schnell said. He said food and wine costs have increased, and staffing remains a key challenge.

Schnell also said he has noticed some changes in what customers want. 

“Guests are more interested in Canadian made products,” he said. 

When asked whether the national discussion about closers reflects what he’s seeing locally, Schnell said he has not noticed many closures in the Bow Valley.

Other Canmore operators said they have also seen signs that people are cutting back. 

“Year over year was roughly flat, despite increased efforts, advertising, product expansion and more,” said Brian Dunn, founder of Canmore Brewing. “Shipping costs have soared, and pretty much every ingredient has gone up in some way.”

Dunn said he has seen customers spend way less when they go out. 

“They are eating and drinking less if they do come out, they stay for shorter periods and there are fewer of them,” he said. 

Dunn said he has not seen clear signs of a closure wave locally, but he said restaurants can feel pressure quickly when costs rise and sales drop.

Chef Tracy A. Little of Sauvage, a fine dining restaurant in Canmore, described the past year as her most difficult since opening and said she believes the national conversation reflects what she is seeing in town.

“The past year has been the most demanding we’ve experienced,” she said. “Costs for literally everything have gone up and the margin for error is gone.”

Little said food costs have hit especially hard. 

“We are deeply impacted by the cost of food,” she said. “We’ve seen some costs that are fivefold what they were when we opened six years ago.” 

Little also said diners appear to be more careful about spending. 

“Dining out is less casual and something that is an event looked forward to,” she said. “Guests are looking for value and meaning in the experience.”

Across these responses, staffing strains came up repeatedly, along with the challenge of making the business work outside peak tourism periods.

“We essentially have three months to make enough money to survive the entire year, with only a few holidays providing brief relief during the dead season,” Little said.

For local operators, consistent year round support can matter as much as peak season tourism. Choosing independent restaurants and cafes during quieter months, returning to places you value, and recommending them to friends can help stabilize businesses that operate on tight margins in a seasonal economy.

Want to dig into the national data behind the restaurant closure forecasts? Read the full study here.