Alberta Says Grizzly Bear Numbers Are Growing, But What About The Bow Valley?

Alberta says its grizzly bear population has grown to roughly 1,000.

Longtime researcher Gordon Stenhouse says outdated and inconsistent population surveys make it difficult to determine whether grizzly numbers are still growing across the province.

That uncertainty extends to the Bow Valley and Kananaskis, where the most recent provincial population surveys were conducted in separate areas in 2014 and 2016.

Stenhouse told Bow Valley Insider that more sightings alone don't necessarily mean the population is growing. More people in bear habitat, more reporting and shifts in where bears spend their time can lead to more encounters, along with a possible rise in bear numbers.

Distinguishing between these possibilities requires comparable population surveys.

What Do We Know About Bow Valley Grizzlies?

While Alberta has reported population growth across the province, the picture is less clear closer to home.

The Bow Valley falls within Livingstone, known as Bear Management Area 5, which includes Canmore, Exshaw and Kananaskis.

Alberta's BMA 5 occurrence summary describes the area's geography and inventory history. An initial survey in 2006 was followed by work in the northern section in 2014 and the southern section in 2016.

That means the latest surveys are now 12 and 10 years old, respectively.

Stenhouse said differences in geography, timing and technique limit direct comparisons.

Alberta's grizzly bear recovery plan describes Livingstone's population as stable or likely stable. That published assessment does not give a current count for 2026.

Sara Heerema, a conservation outreach specialist with the Alberta Wilderness Association, said the age of the information weakens the evidence available for decisions about recovery, land use and coexistence in the Bow Valley.

Where Are Alberta's Grizzly Bear Numbers Coming From?

The Environment and Protected Areas minister's office said the province's recovery plan has helped grow the grizzly population from about 700 in 2010 to about 1,000 today.

It said monitoring is costly and labour-intensive because the animals are elusive and range over large areas. The office did not identify the dataset, reference year or method behind the current estimate.

Alberta Wilderness Association has also sought evidence supporting provincial population claims.

In an August 2024 letter to Forestry and Parks Minister Todd Loewen, it requested the scientific report behind an earlier estimate of more than 1,150 bears.

Loewen's response asserted that the population was growing and supplied figures on bear attacks, livestock losses and bears killed in self-defence, but no population dataset or survey methodology.

Heerema said the association believes conflict figures may be informing population claims.

The government did not explicitly say it used those figures to estimate bear numbers.

What bear encounters can tell us

Research also shows why conflict figures cannot be used as a population count.

A 2016 study of grizzlies in British Columbia found that years with reduced salmon availability were associated with more bears being killed in conflicts with people.

Although the findings don't explain what's driving encounters in Alberta, they show how food availability can influence conflicts between bears and people.

Where populations have increased

Researchers have documented growth in parts of Alberta. The question is whether that growth reflects what's happening across the province today.

Stenhouse pointed to two bear management areas with repeat surveys he considers comparable in design and methods: Yellowhead, around Hinton, and Clearwater, which extends toward Sundre.

Both showed substantial increases.

In a comparable survey area in Yellowhead, the estimate rose from 36 bears in 2004 to about 71 in 2014, while a Clearwater survey in 2018 estimated about 88 bears, up from its 2005 findings.

Two comparable counts still don't show whether that growth is continuing, Stenhouse said. A third survey could find more growth, stability or decline.

How researchers count grizzly bears

Grizzlies reproduce slowly. Parks Canada says females in the mountain national parks have offspring every four to five years on average, making long-term monitoring particularly important.

Stenhouse described sampling sites with barbed-wire corrals and a scent lure, but no food reward.

Bears crossing the wire leave hair that researchers collect and analyse for DNA, a method documented in the Clearwater inventory report.

By identifying individual bears and how often they are detected, researchers can estimate the wider population, including bears their sampling missed. Comparing results over time means accounting for differences in survey boundaries and sampling methods.

What Happens Next?

The association wants Alberta to follow the recovery plan's recommendation to rotate population counts among bear management areas every five years, or to update counts across all areas over a shorter period.

Alberta said it supports an fRI Research monitoring project meant to identify population trends and inform future management and recovery decisions. The minister's office did not provide a release schedule or say whether the results will be directly comparable with earlier inventories.

For the Bow Valley, Stenhouse’s distinction matters: seeing bears more often does not necessarily mean there are more bears.

Until new, comparable surveys are completed, researchers cannot say with confidence whether grizzly bear numbers in the Bow Valley are growing, stable or declining.