Canmore’s New Wildfire Model Uses Income to Help Target Mitigation and Support

Canmore has developed a new wildfire planning map built around a simple idea: the same fire can have very different consequences depending on who it happens to.

Town officials say the goal of the new Wildfire and Social Vulnerability Map is to help guide how Canmore prepares for wildfire by understanding risk at an individual and household level, not just a landscape level. The tool combines wildfire behaviour data with social and financial indicators to show where residents may face greater difficulty evacuating, recovering, or rebuilding after a fire.

In its briefing to council, the town notes that losing a home as a lower income, multi generational household would likely be experienced very differently than by a more affluent household that owns a secondary residence in another jurisdiction. The map is designed to help planners account for those differences when deciding where to focus mitigation and support efforts.

The report was submitted by Caitlin Van Gaal, the Town’s Supervisor of Environment and Sustainability, and Caitlin Miller, Manager of Protective Services and Director of Emergency Management.

Wildfire has been identified as one of Canmore’s most significant climate related hazards. In recent years, the town has expanded fuel reduction work, vegetation management, FireSmart home assessments, and the construction of regional fire guards around parts of the community. The new mapping model adds another layer to that work by examining how wildfire impacts could vary across different neighbourhoods and populations.

Traditional wildfire risk maps focus on fuel loads, vegetation, ember exposure, and structural vulnerability. This new model keeps those elements but overlays them with social data that reflects how residents may be affected differently by the same event.

According to the report, disasters tend to disproportionately impact people based on social and financial conditions. Older adults, lower income households, newcomers, and those in less stable housing situations may face greater barriers during emergencies and recovery. Without factoring in those conditions, officials say, risk planning can miss where support is most needed.

The new map draws from multiple data sources to build a layered risk profile across Canmore neighbourhoods. Inputs include wildfire fuel behaviour potential and ember exposure, along with built environment characteristics such as building age, roof type, and the presence of combustible materials. FireSmart home assessment results are also included where available.

On the social side, the model incorporates neighbourhood level indicators such as median income, proportion of low income households, age distribution, immigrant and recent immigrant households, housing cost burden, and nationally developed social vulnerability and deprivation indexes.

Housing type and use are also considered. The map distinguishes between primary residences, secondary residences, visitor accommodation, tourist homes, employee housing, and supportive housing. Town staff note that neighbourhoods with higher proportions of primary residents may face different evacuation and recovery pressures than areas dominated by secondary or seasonal homes.

Critical infrastructure and property value data are also layered into the model.

By combining these factors, the map highlights areas where wildfire exposure and social vulnerability overlap. Administration says those areas can then be prioritized for prevention and resilience work.

The tool is expected to guide decisions such as where to concentrate FireSmart neighbourhood recognition efforts, where to prioritize fuel reduction and vegetation modification, which zones may need more aggressive hazardous tree removal, and where targeted education, incentives, and social support programs could have the greatest impact.

The project was funded through a one time allocation tied to Canmore’s Climate Emergency Action Plan. After council declared a climate emergency in 2019, the town adopted an updated climate action framework in 2024 that identified wildfire as a key local threat. A municipal FireSmart document review completed in 2025 found that while technical wildfire mitigation planning was strong, there was a gap in tools that measured vulnerability at a social and household level.

That finding led to the creation of the new map.

Staff from multiple departments contributed to the project, including protective services, fire rescue, public works, information technology, and community social development. External consulting support was also used to develop the model framework and data integration.

Administration describes the map as an operational planning tool rather than a public rating system. Because it combines many technical and sensitive indicators, officials say it is meant to be used in context to guide programming and resource allocation rather than to label neighbourhoods.

The model is also time sensitive. Demographics, housing patterns, and building characteristics change, so the map represents a snapshot rather than a permanent assessment. The town will maintain the data, with a deeper review expected roughly every five years.

Officials say the map does not change how emergency crews would respond to a wildfire, but it will influence how the town prepares ahead of time. That includes where prevention work is done first, where outreach and incentives are directed, and how resilience programs are designed.